Texas Gains Most People in 2008-09, U.S. Census Says
By Vivien Lou Chen and Peter S. Green
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) — Texas gained more residents than any other U.S. state as the recession deepened in 2008 and early this year, the Census Bureau said in a report that indicated job seekers migrated to one of the nation’s stronger labor markets.
The state’s population grew by 478,000 in the 12-month period that ended July 1, according to Census estimates released today. California, the most populous state, was next with a 381,000 rise, followed by North Carolina at 134,000, Georgia with 131,000 and Florida, which had 114,000.
The figures are the final estimates to be published before official 2010 population counts are released by the bureau next December, which will determine how more than $400 billion in federal funding is distributed and how seats in the House of Representatives are reapportioned. Texas would gain four congressional seats for the 2012 elections, according to an analysis of the estimates by Polidata LLC in Corinth, Vermont.
“The state remains a magnet, drawing people from other parts of country who are out of work and believe their job prospects are a lot better than the places they came from,” said Bernard Weinstein, former director of the Center for Economic Development and Research at the University of North Texas in Denton.
“Let’s be clear: Texas is having a recession like the rest of country, but it’s not as bad,” said Weinstein, now an economist at the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. “Texas is going to pop up on a lot of radar screens as a place to relocate or expand for businesses.”
Lower Unemployment
Texas, the second most-populous state with 24.8 million people, had the highest overall population growth of any state for much of the decade, with the largest share of migrants in recent years coming from California, Louisiana and Florida, according to the Census Bureau and Pew Research Center in Washington. Its unemployment rate has stayed at least 1 percentage point below the U.S. average during most of the nationwide recession, which began in December 2007.
The state added more jobs than any other in November and October, on a month-over-month basis. Almost 70,000 positions were added in areas such as finance, education and health services, according to the Texas Workforce Commission. That compares with a nationwide loss of 122,000 during the two-month period.
Job Creation
“I delight in the fact that my Federal Reserve district was the only one in the country that created jobs in 2008,” Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said in a September speech in Dallas. “While the nation lost over 3 million jobs in 2008 as the peanut butter hit the fan, we managed to create 63,100 jobs in Texas.”
Unemployment in Texas fell to 8 percent in November from 8.3 percent, a 22-year high, a month earlier. That was below the national average of 10 percent.
The state’s labor force surged to the largest ever, with 12.1 million people employed or available for work. The increase may result from more out-of-state migrants, stay-at-home parents, students and part-timers looking for work, said the Texas Workforce Commission.
“When Texas is doing relatively better than the rest of the country, people come here to look for jobs,” said Mine Yucel, a senior economist at the Dallas Fed. “We had two months of positive employment growth, which may be an indication that we are coming out of recession. But it’s too early to tell.”
Recession
Texas didn’t fall into recession until about six months after the U.S., making it one of the last states to do so, according to the Dallas Fed.
About half of Texas’ 2008-2009 population gain came as the result of migration into the state, while the other half was due to “natural net growth,” or births minus deaths, according to Census.
“Texas gets both a lot of new immigrants and people from internal migration, or movement from state to state,” said Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer for Pew. While other factors may influence where people move, “jobs is the main driver,” he said.
California remained the most populous state as of July 1, with a population of 37 million. New York had 19.5 million, Florida 18.5 million, and Illinois 12.9 million. The nation’s population was 307 million, an increase of 0.86 percent since July 1, 2008, according to the bureau.
To contact the reporters on this story: Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco at [email protected]; Peter S. Green in New York at [email protected]